What is the long-term biological and geological future of Earth?

Earth's future will be shaped by a combination of slow geological shifts, a steadily brightening Sun, and potential human technological interventions. Over hundreds of millions of years, weathering and decreasing carbon dioxide levels will spell the end for plant life, while a warming Sun will eventually trigger a runaway greenhouse effect. Eventually, the expanding Sun during its red giant phase may engulf the planet, though some recent research suggests Earth might survive this final phase.

What we know

• The steady increase in the Sun's luminosity will cause a higher rate of weathering of silicate minerals, reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. [2]
• In about 250 to 350 million years, plate tectonics will likely create a new supercontinent as part of the ongoing supercontinent cycle. [2] · medium confidence
• In approximately one billion years, a 10% increase in solar luminosity will cause a moist greenhouse effect and runaway evaporation of the oceans. [2]
• Human technology, including climate engineering, introduces significant uncertainty and is currently causing the Holocene extinction, while scientific fields like astrophysics and particle physics provide frameworks for predicting far-future events. [2, 3] · medium confidence

Still open

• It remains uncertain whether Earth will actually be engulfed by the Sun when it enters its red giant phase, or if the planet will survive.
• The long-term influence of human technology, such as whether humanity will go extinct or successfully manage climate engineering, is undetermined.

Where to go next

• how it workedHow does plate tectonics drive the supercontinent cycle?
• whenWhat events are charted on the timeline of the far future?
• a case in pointWhat is the Future Earth international research program?
• what caused itHow will stellar evolution and solar luminosity change over time?
• the bigger pictureWhat are the broader topics studied in astrophysics and particle physics?
• an unexpected connectionHow does a 2006 BBC documentary connect to planetary futures?A BBC natural history television companion series specifically explored environmental conservation and future challenges facing species featured in Planet Earth.

Sources

• [1]future of Earth (Wikidata Q2003654) · CC0 1.0
• [2]Future of Earth · CC BY-SA 4.0
• [3]Timeline of the far future · CC BY-SA 4.0
• [4]Future Earth · CC BY-SA 4.0
• [5]Planet Earth: The Future · CC BY-SA 4.0

Your path

1. How does stratospheric aerosol injection cool the planet?
2. /What is the long-term biological and geological future of Earth?