Who is leading the opinion polls for Brazil's 2026 election?

Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election tracks national voting intentions following the 2022 general election. Research firms survey potential contenders who meet party registration and legal eligibility standards set by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil. These surveys help evaluate public support prior to the general election rounds.

What we know

• Polling organizations began publishing surveys tracking national voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election after the conclusion of the 2022 elections. [2]
• To be consistently included in published polls, candidates must be registered with a political party and declared eligible by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil. [2]
• Candidates belonging to parties that passed the 2022 electoral threshold gain access to public funding, broadcast ad time, and debate participation. [2]
• In the 2026 election, Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47% of the vote before incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff in an upset. [4]

Where to go next

• the bigger pictureHow does Brazil conduct its national general elections?
• how it workedWhat rules govern candidate eligibility in Brazil?
• compared withHow did polling compare to presidential races elsewhere in South America?
• how we knowHow did first round polling align with the actual election outcome?
• whenWhen did presidential polling begin after the 2022 general election?
• an unexpected connectionHow did a candidate losing the first round win the runoff election?In the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, Lula lost the initial round to Flávio Bolsonaro before winning the runoff, marking the first time in Brazilian presidential election history that the first-round leader lost the runoff.

Sources

• [1]Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (Wikidata Q130726989) · CC0 1.0
• [2]Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election · CC BY-SA 4.0
• [3]Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election · CC BY-SA 4.0
• [4]2026 Brazilian general election · CC BY-SA 4.0
• [5]2026 Colombian presidential election · CC BY-SA 4.0

Your path

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8. /Who is leading the opinion polls for Brazil's 2026 election?